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27/11/2013 Statistics and MICE researches

Uvet Travel Index: in 2014 Italian GDP expected to grow by 1%

During the opening of the  BizTravel Forum, currently being held in Milan at FieraMilano City, the  Uvet Group presented the data of the Uvet Travel Index, the synthetic indicator for the interpretation of the economic cycle drawn up by the Uvet Group with the scientific support of The European House - Ambrosetti, which determines GDP based on business travel trends.

“More than once we have mentioned that there is a correlation between business travel trends and GDP and we have now provided scientific back up to prove our theory with the presentation, today, of the first official forecast. This indicator provides real time data about the economic cycle and, what is more, in advance of the official data diffused by Istat”, explained Luca Patanè, president of the Uvet Group . 

According to the Uvet Travel Index, at the end of 2014, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Italy will increase by 1% compared to 2013. This forecast is more optimistic compared to that indicated by the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the Government and Confindustria which rates it at 0.7%.   

For 2013, the forecasts given by the Uvet Travel Index foresee a slowdown in the fall of GDP which although negative, i.e. –1,71% -,does still not point towards economic recovery.

Uvet Amex’s Business Travel Survey (BTS), which monitors a sample of about 700 companies equal to 20% of the sector, also highlighted that prices in the transport sector have increased by 32% , much more rapidly than the inflation rate (+18,5%), while a decrease of 29%  has been registered in the business travel industry thanks to liberalization of the market and the professional management of travel management companies.

“Thanks to this dynamic, over these past 8 years, resources equal to almost 5 billion euros have been “freed”, i.e. money saved given that business travel prices have followed a contrary dynamic compared to that of transportation prices. In short, the business travel industry generates economic competitiveness, providing a service that improves over time at a decreasing cost, with a constant increase in productivity to the advantage of the entire economic system”, commented the president of Uvet.  

From an analysis of business travel from 2006 to the present time, Uvet Amex shows that by observing the growth of GDP in several countries, it is possible to evaluate whether there is still room for Italian businesses in them. For example, the increase in business travel to China was lower than the growth of its GDP. 


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