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6/02/2014 Statistics and MICE researches

How will the Italian GNP fare? The future is predicteed by....business travel

Business traveller
Business traveller

The forecasts for the future are promising, at least this is what the predictive index created by Uvet. This index, in fact, is based on business travels, and basically anticipates the GNP trends. According to predictions the GNP will be back to the levels of the 3rd trimester of 2012 by the end of the year.

The decline of the Italian economy has reached a halt in the fourth trimester of 2013 (GNP -0,07% with respect to the trimester before) and for 2014 a growth is foreseen of 1% of Gross National Product with a very effervescent second trimester that will take the end of the year to the same levels of the third trimester of 2012. 

These are the predictions by Uvet Travel Index created by Uvet group, a leader in tourist distribution with 2.2 billion Euros turnover. Its scientific division is managed by The European House - Ambrosetti. Uvet Travel Index has been created by comparing a historic series of information regarding business travel and GNP from 2006 to the present. From this study emerged that business travel trend reflects 94% of the GNP tendencies of the Country. The estimate by Uvet Travel Index for 2013 indicates a -1.69% trend at the end of the year with respect to 2012.

"On many occasions we stated that there is a relation between travel tendency and GNP", explains Luca Patanè, President of the Uvet Group, "Now we have officialised our intuition. The estimated growth of 1% for 2014 anticipated by Uvet Travel Index is slightly more optimistic than the 0,7% foreseen by the European Commission, International Monetary Fund, Government and Confindustria. "From the information we have", concludes Patanè, "there will be a larger accelaration in the second half of 2014. The growth predicted for the first six months, 1st semester 2014 against 2nd semester 2013, highlights an increase of 0,3%. In any case, with these growth prospects - continues Patanè - by the end of the year we should be back to the same levels of the third trimester 2012".

 


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